By Osward Bwali
THE United Party for National Development (UPND) government has overseen many by-elections at all levels except at presidential level. The president, Hakainde Hichilema, appears in tip top condition. And in any case, even if he died or was incapacitated, his deputy, Mutale Nalumango, would simply take over Hassan-style. The Lord works in mysterious ways! So, we are not having any presidential by-elections by a long shot.
Whereas some by-elections have come through deaths of incumbents, many are a result of mingalato – cold, cynical Machiavellian tactics of getting political advantage even through clearly immoral means. Hichilema won in 2021 resoundingly. He had one simple task. To unify the country towards one goal of national prosperity. But his hyper-tribalism and inferiority complex led him towards Tonga Zionism. Purge government systems of the Bemba-speaking and of easterners and have them replaced with those from the Zambezi region. This has been done to epic proportions and unapologetically.
Together, the Northerner and the Easterners make up forty-eight percent of Zambia’s twenty million people. Electorally, that is a huge proportion to mess with. After genetically failing to embrace the other tribes beyond a token co-option of a few useful idiots, Hichilema’s only strategy was dribbling. He has been more transparent about his evil plans than about his mysterious wealth.
He flicks his tongue and makes a chilling proclamation against the Patriotic Front and Edgar Lungu: “The PF have started regrouping. We will come for you in a heavy way.” Again, “We will change our strategy. You dance this side, and we dance from the other side, go behind you and choke you by the neck”. Yet again, from the Seventh Day church elder, “He’s coming back to which seat? That’s being foolish”.
Hichilema’s statements are fully glossed in bitterness, vengeance, and insecurity. You see sometimes the so-called rich become rich because they have deep unresolved childhood issues. They try too hard to overcompensate to become a somebody or even the only one. And they can be unflinchingly ruthless.
Through these public confessions, Hichilema has told us he will not hold back from using any wicked means to kill the Patriotic Front or any person or organisation that threatens his precarious hold to power. It does not help that the PF is originally or mainly a Bemba party. An ethnicity he has a deep-seated loathing for. This is clear from highly selective justice which has seen many Bembas including those like GBM and Kambwili that he pretended to be friends with for his political expediency. Pastor Duncan Simuchimba is but the latest casualty among more to come.
Other than the ethnically motivated lawfare, Hichilema seeks to finish off opposition through by-elections. In fact, the strategy is interlocked in most cases. Get a someone from Bweengwa to accuse a Northerner or Easterner incumbent of corruption, sedition, or hate speech. Have a Zambezi co-ethnic judge or magistrate convict them. Have Nellie Mutti declare the seat vacant. Have Mwangala Zaloumis and McDonald Chipenzi arrange a tilted election. Lock up members of the Tonse campaign team. Grow the number of parliamentarians for the ruling party and deplete the opposition.
These elections come at too great a cost to the treasury for a beggar country. Nalumango and Hichilema both boast about walking barefoot to school. Do they have the intellect or morality to see how much each by-election financing can do for the vulnerable, which includes all of us? Felix Nkulukusa, a beneficiary of Zambezi appointments can well attest to this. For both of Hichilema and Nalumango, an elder and a pastor’s wife, their love of power by far outmatches their power of love. To any sensible person, by-election should take place only when absolutely necessary, such as after that vehicle follows and crushes Levy Mkandawire. Not looking for seats in Eastern and Northern and unleashing the judiciary, speaker, ECZ, and police.
What about the by-election results, should the UPND celebrate them?
Of course, only myopic and unpatriotic fools would celebrate such callous wastage of money for a very poor country whose populations are ready to sell a vote for four dollars just to buy something to eat. We are talking about populations of whom three quarters are poor and over fifty percent extremely poor.
To spend these poor people’s money arranging an unnecessary election and buying their vote is a severe moral and mental aberration, sickness to the core. Only the most mediocre and morally bankrupt thief can think this is how Zambia Shall be Saved. And the ever sensible, vocal, and bold Mukamambo looks on nonchalantly, finally ethnically pacified.
The UPND want by-elections for various reasons. They want a demonstration of their continued popularity over the opposition. They want to have a two-third majority to pass certain controversial laws that will sustain them in power. Their ultimate goal being Tonga-Zambezi ethno-political hegemony. But by-elections are a double-edged sword. Who lives by the sword might die by it. By-elections are a faulty barometer for general elections.
Firstly, incumbents do better in by-elections due to concentration of human and material resources. The president, if he is in good health, the slay vice-president, ministers, and a hoard of civil servants will all gather in one place. The best rigging teams and machinery is focused on one place. They will flaunt kasaka ka ndalama and threaten to not develop the area should the locals vote for an opposition candidate. The opposition are simply overwhelmed.
During a general election, there will be increased parity as Gary Nkombo, Cornelius Mweetwa, and Elvis Nkandu will be alone fighting for their own political survival. Even if they do not think they have to step in Southern Province to win by a landslide, Hichilema, if in good health, and Nalumango will only be in one constituency at a time and for not more than a couple of days. But Southern Province may surprise us. Even Jesus’ people refused to vote for him after they thought he was a fake messiah. They may awaken and realise Ndambo and Lungu are more genuine and helpful people than an insatiably greedy Hichilema.
Whereby the ruling party can ferry supporters and voters from far flung areas, even districts, for opposition supporters, the stakes are not so high in by-elections. For ruling party supporters, it’s a do or die event as a loss foretells defeat in the general election. This is less so for opposition supporters who see the event as an academic exercise, largely inconsequential to their suffering. Not many opposition supporters will forego their daily struggles for survival to go and vote for an MP, let alone a councillor.
The asymmetry is reduced, and potentially even reversed during a general election. A general or presidential election is a chance of redemption from incompetence and crass tribalism. The lame will walk to the booth and return to their wheelchair later. Some will sleep at the polling stations while those who overslept at home will be there by three or four in the morning.
Any ruling party official or cadre carrying suspicious materials around the polling station is risking their life. Kungo’s death should inspire extreme caution. Knowing the possibility for change of government, cadre civil servants will show more restraint and jumpy politicians like Felix Mutati will change to Tonse colours at the last minute. Even those like Dora Siliya who are finished and worn out and now flirting with the UPND will want to try one last time to jump on the Tonse fervour.
Many marginalised, trampled upon, or scared today, including chiefs, will speak out. Surrounded by exposed and non-performing MPs like Syakalima, Mweetwa, and J. J. Mwiimbu, Hichilema and Nalumango will find themselves very isolated. With critical former allies like Davies Mulenga, Canisius Banda, GBM, and Kambwili dead, in prison, or in Tonse, they will have to rely on certified religious and political failures like Nevers Mumba.
By-elections waste a lot of resources. Don’t UPND praise singers like Ms Laura Miti see this? Causing them just exposes Nalumango and Hichilema as heartless individuals to whom the suffering of Zambians means nothing. Winning them does not indicate popularity or predict victory in 2026 for the UPND. One must feel genuinely sorry for Hichilema and Nalumango for what awaits them in the coming months as their popularity nose-dives, hitherto praise singers scamper, and their mingalato unravel and boomerang. But their impending doom is hope for a united and prosperous Zambia.
