Academics: Zambia needs a fresh vote
By Thandizo Banda
WORLD-CLASS political analysts and academics have called for a rerun of the 2026 presidential election, saying discrepancies in the just-ended general election results have damaged the country’s democratic credibility.
In an analysis published on Tuesday, University of Birmingham academics Nic Cheeseman and Nicole Beardsworth said the most troubling evidence was in the results themselves, not just opposition allegations.
Cheeseman and Beardsworth found that in a number of constituencies, considerably more votes were cast in the presidential race than in the parliamentary election held at the same time.
“In 16 constituencies reviewed, the difference was over 170,000 votes, about 15% of the margin between the two leading presidential candidates. In Solwezi North, the turnout gap was over 46%. We have generally treated a gap of more than five percentage points between simultaneous presidential and parliamentary turnout as a warning sign,” they said.
The two authors argued that the scenario appears to be uniform in more constituencies.
“In Zambia, some of the gaps appear to be far larger than that. In several constituencies, they exceed 10%. In the most extreme cases, the difference appears to be over 40%,” they said.
They said at least 27 constituencies recorded presidential turnout above 80 percent, mostly in UPND strongholds in North-Western, Western and Southern provinces, compared to a national weighted turnout of 57 per cent, and none from the opposition strongholds.
The authors estimate the suspicious difference may account for between 350,000 and 550,000 votes.
They noted that this alone would not overturn President Hakainde Hichilema’s declared margin of about 1.1 million votes, but said this was consistent with hurried manipulation and leaves obvious inconsistencies.
In the write-up, Cheeseman and Beardsworth said the electoral confidence was shaken on August 14 when the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) suspended counting nationwide, citing violence and security concerns.
They said although the suspension was lifted the same day after opposition and civil society pressure, AU-COMESA observers said the decision contributed to the increased mistrust.
The two writers noted that the EU election exposed an uneven playing field with restrictions on opposition campaigning, incumbency advantages and biased state media.
Cheeseman and Beardsworth said a rerun alone was not enough, citing Malawi’s 2020 rerun, which restored confidence after leadership changes at the electoral commission, and Kenya’s 2017 rerun, which deepened polarization because reforms were not made.
“None of this proves that Hichilema would have lost a clean election. But if these discrepancies are confirmed, Zambia may need a fresh vote and reforms to ensure that it does not reproduce the problems of the first,”
