OPINION POLLS FAKE
…Don’t be swayed by bogus, biased surveys – expert
By Thandizo Banda
POLITICAL researcher Dr Cephas Mukuka has dismissed the opinion polls being peddled by politically exposed media outlets as fake.
Dr Mukuka said the polls currently flooding mainstream and social media were inaccurate and biased for the benefit of specific individuals who are sponsoring them.
Speaking in an interview with The Mast, he said Zambia lacked a credible track record of accurate opinion polling, making such predictions premature and highly misleading.
“This skepticism is rooted in Zambia’s history, where opinion polls have often been inaccurate, and voters rarely reveal their true intentions to pollsters. Additionally, inexperienced pollsters and biased data collection methods contribute to these inaccuracies,” Dr Mukuka said.
He said for an opinion poll to be deemed accurate, it should be national in character.
“For opinion polls to be accurate, they need to capture a representative sample of the population, reflecting Zambia’s diverse demographics, regions, and backgrounds. Without a national character, polls might miss key voices and skew results,” Dr Mukuka said.
He said in the case of Zambia, a well conducted opinion poll should involve all provincial centres and not necessarily those along the line of rail.
“You cannot conduct an opinion poll concentrating on a limited area and via phone calls, podcasts and messages. An opinion poll or research conducted in a hurry cannot achieve accurate results,” Dr Mukuka said.
He said unlike EMV podcast which targeted a particular class of people, an effective opinion poll needed representative coverage.
“You also need independent and credible people who are free from bias to do the work. It has to be done using the required benchmarks and time frame. There’s need to even conduct a mock election in some areas because people’s moods are different according to locations,” Dr Mukuka said.
He warned that a skewed opinion poll on public perception and decision-making could mislead voters, influence undecided voters and create unnecessary tension in the political space.
Dr Mukuka advised Zambians not to be swayed by potentially skewed results.
“Can citizens take a step back, look at multiple sources and make informed decisions,” he said.
