Why Hakainde cannot win the 2026 elections
By Osward Bwali
ZAMBIANS go to the polls in 87 days. A few days ago, parliament dissolved and ministers saw their short-lived grip on power and luxury slip away in a flash, forever. It is now count down for Hakainde Hichilema. There are no reasons Hichilema should be retained by the people of Zambia.
If one considers the reasons Zambians have voted out presidents in the past, Hakainde has failed badly. He now holds to power desperately by his crooked fingernails. I cannot give you all the factors, but here are some reasons Zambian are getting rid of Hakainde in August.
Cadreism is a malady that Zambians have despised since Kenneth Kaunda’s reign of terror. The vigilantes still make my blood run cold with their brutality. Levy Mwanawasa expressed his disavowal of cadreism and for a few years, Zambian enjoyed some peace. Then during the Patriotic Front (PF) rule, cadreism reached its peak. Among many reasons, this is a major one cited for why the PF lost power in 2021.
During the days of opposition, violent cadres of the UPND unleashed terror that resulted in several deaths. There are few elections where the opposition have not faced with violence from the ruling party supporters. The higher the stakes, the greater the UPND propensity to violence.
UPND cadreism has also manifested through social media. The UPND are really obsessed with social media. They have unleashed thousands of cadres to harass opponents and critics on social media. Many have locked Facebook accounts while others hide under fake newly-created accounts. But some are brazen and troll or insult critics openly. The belief in the UPND appears to be that he who conquers social media wins elections.
However, UPND trolls commit virtual violence no less disliked by Zambians than physical violence. They surround insult and threaten critics and opponents. Their comments are herd-like and choreographed. It’s like a list of responses to a critic or opponent are generated in a WhatsApp group and members are asked to choose a line and post it. These are on every page, of the UPND, opposition, and critics. Just read through any Sishuwa Sishuwa posts on X or Zambia Whistleblower to see this pattern.
But instead of consolidating or gaining support for Hichilema, this cadreism, just like the physical version, alienates all who are independent and sensible. It manifests intellectual emptiness, intolerance, herd psychology, and desperation. It also signals radicalisation as these cadres are immune to any reason or evidence. This cadreism is anchored on and parrots the Zambezi media ensemble led by Hamasaka, Mweetwa, Shalala, Haimbe, Kawana and Simuuwe.
Close to cadreism, Zambians hate tribalism. If Edgar Lungu was kicked out because of tribalism, who does Hakainde think he is that he will not face the same fate? Hakainde has shamelessly and wantonly practiced tribalism in all its forms. Appointments and promotions, persecutions, and a siege Zionist mentality of collective victimhood. It’s a dictator’s textbook: “they are out to get you; rally behind me as your messiah and you will be safe.”
Zambians want a leader who does not peat them against each other. For a country of over 70 ethnic groups, life lived under constant ethnic suspicion can become easily unbearable. “One Zambia, One Nation” has so much traction because Zambians want to escape ethnic tension and live together in a Zambia where tribe is dignified cultural heritage label and not a political knife that a greedy politician separate us.
So even if voters from the Zambezi tribes are beneficiaries from Hakainde’s nepotism and tribalism or they have fallen under his spell, the vast majority of voters will be victims or neutrals who simply want a ‘One Zambia, One Nation’ and no tribe is superior or preferred to another. Tribalist Hakainde cannot get more than 50% across more than 70 tribes.
Although the propaganda of economic recovery and fantastical projections has grown exponentially to the level even The Telegraph oozes praises for Hakainde, reality speaks otherwise. Zambezi economists like Lubinda Habazoka, Oliver Saasa, Chibamba Kanyama are never short of superlatives for economic milestone achieved by Hakainde, Jito Kaumba, Nalumango, Situmbeko Musokotwane. But the praise singers pick up the chorus and run-off with it on empty wallets and stomachs.
The economics of the UPND is nothing short of economic astrology. There is so much talk of free education and yet thousands being churned out by hundreds of universities and colleges are joining long queues of unemployment. Worse still, the employment is based on some secret data base that offers no transparency or accountability. Those recruited sometimes take months before their first salary hits their account.
Poverty levels have skyrocketed, the middle class has shrunk, and the cost of living has left many Zambians on the verge of suicide and starvation. Poverty levels have become so endemic that many politicians and commentators are so pliable in exchange for handouts or promises of jobs.
Today, you will see commentators and politicians like Saviour Chishimba offering reasoned commentaries. The next day they are drooling with admiration and praise for Hakainde with veiled attacks on ‘fellow’ opposition. What changed?
To keep up with middle class appearances, we must praise the economic alchemy and political engineering of Hakainde. We can sink to any low. Under conditions of serious scarcity, principles and perceived influence could be traded to ensure poverty is kept at bay.
If there is an area where Hakainde has done well for Zambia, it is in witchcraft. I had lived in Zambia for most of my life and at no point was superstition raised to this level. Stories that Hakainde is a Freemason with a very high rank have been around and won’t go away. Freemasonry is like a secret cult and many Zambians are members. Under Hichilema, Freemasons freely assemble and even issue statements on their activities. A UPND official argued that it was okay to have a Freemason who made lives better.
Many Zambians were willing to discount Freemasonry suspicion for less poverty and better lives. With worsened cost or standards of living, most voters will not want a ‘Freemason’ Hakainde as president after 13 August. Freemasonry will be on voters’ minds as they decide against whose head to mark that X.
Hakainde’s alleged involvement in black magic has sometimes overshadowed his suspected involvement in Freemasonry. Many factors have consolidated the black magic suspicion. The number of road accident deaths and suicides during the UPND regime, Hichilema’s refusal to shift to State House, his wearing of white gloves during public events, his mysterious holidays in Choma, his close association with Chief Mukuni, the conviction of two for trying to harm him through witchcraft, his obsession with his enemy Edgar Lungu’s corpse. His obsession with the Catholic Church is also seen by some as not just political but spiritual too. For many, voting for Hakainde is like voting for more witchcraft and mysterious deaths.
The Catholic Church stands for social justice. This has helped maintain its influence and relevance even when Pentecostal churches have eaten into their ratio of faithful. The Catholic has stood up against misrule since independence. Many Catholics and neutrals see them as a barometer of governance.
The current Catholic assessment of Hakainde political and economically is gloomy. A few bishops or priests can be intimidated or paid, but you cannot buy the body of Christ the church represents. Many parishioners will be guided by their clergy who experience the congregants’ suffering firsthand and empathise with the congregants.
Hakainde has been too oppressive. He has been a good definition of a power-intoxicated and bloodthirsty despot. Opponents are dead, impoverished, jailed, or exiled. Where is the mighty GBM? Neutralised and exiled. At no point in recent history have we had so many Zambians speaking from abroad due to fear of death or persecution. Zambians cannot stomach this level of injustice much of it hiding under laws designed to exterminate opponents and critics.
State House has received reports of opinion polls saying Hichilema will lose the forthcoming elections. They wasted their time and our goodwill enriching themselves and persecuting opponents and critics. Mutale Nalumango and Jito Kaumba have tried to woo all kinds of musicians. Even they bought the entire ZAM to sing Kwenyu or Salt Saana, these nonsensical slogans do not and will not resonate with the people or reality. As their secret polls have told them, Zambians have moved on and will reap Hakainde from the chair if necessary. Zambians will replace him with the best alternative who appears on the ballot.
