The road to August 13
By Jack Kampole
ZAMBIA is scheduled to hold its next general elections on August 13, 2026. These elections will include the presidential race, National Assembly seats, and local government positions.
So far, the political atmosphere has been characterised by a mix of cautious optimism for democratic stability and growing frustration over the cost of living. While President Hakainde Hichilema (HH) maintains a lead in recent polling, the “honeymoon phase” of his 2021 landslide victory has given way to a rigorous test of his administration’s ability to deliver economic relief, amid a significant shift in the opposition and a hardening of government rhetoric.
A fragmented opposition
There are several challenges the opposition should not ignore during the run-up to these elections. These could be a mountain to climb, and they seem to be a stumbling block to reckon with.
The death of former president Edgar Lungu left a massive vacuum in the Patriotic Front (PF). Currently, the opposition is attempting to consolidate under the Tonse Alliance (led by Brian Mundubile) and the People’s Pact (led by Fred M’membe). However, internal wrangling has hindered their ability to present a unified front.
While the Government has repealed the “defamation of the president” law, international observers and civil society groups have raised alarms over the frequent use of the Public Order Act to block opposition rallies and the arrest of activists.
The 2025 amendments introduced a mixed-member majoritarian system, increasing the number of National Assembly seats. This includes reserved seats for women, youth, and persons with disabilities; a move the Government calls “inclusive,” but to me, this looks like a strategic expansion of political influence.
Main issues voters care about
The 2026 election will likely be decided on the “bread and butter” issues that affect the average Zambian daily.
Despite a successful (though grueling) debt restructuring process under the G20 framework, the “macro” wins haven’t reached the “micro” level. This has presented the common citizen with high food prices, and the rising cost of electricity tariffs and fuel remains the number one grievance.
The supportive factors strengthening the Kwacha’s performance could be attributed to rising copper export earnings. Strong copper prices and increased export volumes bring more foreign currency into Zambia, improving the trade balance and supporting the Kwacha. Higher export receipts often lessen pressure on the currency by boosting FX supply.
Recent reports highlight that the Kwacha’s appreciation reflects improving underlying FX fundamentals rather than mere speculation. This suggests a better balance between forex demand and supply compared with past periods of acute volatility.
Secondly, Movements in the US dollar and broader global financial conditions can continue to affect the Kwacha’s exchange rate.
Youth unemployment
Zambia has one of the youngest populations in the world. The youth vote was the “kingmaker” in 2021, and they are now demanding. Many young people feel the promised “New Dawn” jobs in the formal sector haven’t materialised fast enough. There is a desire for better alignment between university degrees and the actual job market.
Governance and human rights
Voters are closely watching whether the President keeps his “rule of law” promise, while there is strong demand for the police to act neutrally and stop disrupting peaceful assemblies.
On the issue of CORRUPTION, the Government has pursued high-profile “past” corruption cases; there is still demand for transparency regarding current officials, among many other concerns.
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Note on polling
As of early 2026, some independent polls suggest Hichilema maintains a lead (around 60%). Still, significant undecided blocks in urban centers like Lusaka and the Copperbelt suggest a highly competitive race if the Opposition can unify.
As of February 2026, the political landscape is becoming increasingly defined by a major polling shift. While the UPND government maintains a significant lead nationally, the “battleground” provinces are showing signs of deep division.
According to the latest polling conducted by local consultants and academic demographers in late December 2025 and January 2026, the current sentiment breaks down as follows:
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The National Standing (Early 2026)
Hakainde Hichilema (UPND): Roughly 60%
Combined Opposition (Tonse Alliance & People’s Pact): Roughly 35%
Undecided: Roughly 5%
Despite the economic frustrations, President Hichilema remains the favorite for re-election. However, his support is no longer the “uncontested wave” it was in 2021. The Opposition has gained ground by consolidating under two main banners: Brian Mundubile for the Tonse Alliance and Fred M’membe for the People’s Pact.
Who is winning the argument?
The Government is winning in provinces that value infrastructure and stability. If a province has seen new schools, bridges, or desks funded by the CDF, the UPND message is resonating.
The opposition is winning in areas that prioritise immediate survival. In high-density urban areas where the “Kwacha gain” hasn’t resulted in cheaper bread, the opposition’s talk of “windfall eaxes” is gaining massive traction.
The youth vote
A massive registration drive in late 2025 added hundreds of thousands of new voters. This demographic is less loyal to party names and more focused on jobs.
Pro-government youth: Point to the 40,000+ teachers and nurses hired.
Pro-opposition youth: Point to the high cost of data, rent, and the lack of private-sector jobs.
Final consideration
If you are deciding who to support, look at your local constituency:
Check the CDF: Has the K40 million been used effectively in your area? If yes, the Government’s plan is working for you.
Check your market: Is the cost of staples the single biggest barrier to your family’s progress? If yes, the opposition’s “relief path” may offer the help you need.
In early 2026, the Zambian opposition landscape underwent a major consolidation. Since former President Edgar Lungu was disqualified and subsequently passed away in 2025, two primary candidates have emerged with the “capacity to win” and significant “people’s appeal.”
The “most preferred” candidate depends on which part of the electorate you prioritise: the working-class urban voters or the former PF political machine.
Key players to watch
DR. FRED M’MEMBE (The Socialist Party / People’s Pact)
Dr. M’membe has arguably the highest “People’s Appeal” among the youth and the urban poor in 2026.
Why he has appeal: He is a veteran journalist and activist with a history of standing up to power. His “Socialist” message resonates deeply right now because it focuses on hunger, free education, and radical agricultural reform.
Capacity to win: He leads the People’s Pact, a broad alliance of civil society groups and smaller parties. Unlike traditional politicians, M’membe has been on the ground in markets and villages for years, building a grassroots movement that bypasses traditional media.
The vibe: He is seen as the “Champion of the Poor.” If the election becomes purely about the cost of mealie meal, M’membe is the candidate most likely to siphon votes away from the UPND in Lusaka and the Copperbelt.
BRIAN MUNDUBILE (The Tonse Alliance / Patriotic Front)
Brian Mundubile, elected as the Tonse Alliance candidate on January 28, 2026, has the most “political capacity.”
Why he has capacity: He represents the remnants of the Patriotic Front (PF) infrastructure. He has the backing of established MPs, a massive existing party network, and the “legacy” vote of the Lungu era.
Appeal: Mundubile is viewed as a “stable hand.” He appeals to those who feel the country was more “orderly” or more prosperous before the years of debt restructuring. He is a polished debater and has strong support in Eastern, Northern, and Muchinga provinces.
The strategy: He isn’t trying to be a revolutionary; he is positioning himself as a capable manager who can “restore” the economy by bringing back subsidies and public works.
The “capacity to win”
While both men are strong, recent polling (late 2025) suggests that as long as the opposition remains split between the People’s Pact and the Tonse Alliance, President Hichilema remains the clear favorite.
The path to victory: The opposition’s “most preferred” candidate with the absolute highest capacity to win would be whoever emerges from a final unification of these two groups. They are competing for the same “disillusioned” voters, which favors the incumbent.
As the August 13, 2026, election draws closer, the UPND (United Party for National Development) is not sitting idly by as the opposition attempts to unite. President Hakainde Hichilema’s administration has developed a multi-layered strategy to maintain its 60% lead and counter the growing momentum of the Tonse Alliance and People’s Pact.
The government’s counter-strategy
The UPND is moving beyond the “economic repair” narrative to a more aggressive political defense.
The Government is leaning heavily on the January 27, 2026, completion of the 38-month IMF program. They are framing this as the “Final Hurdle,” arguing that the painful reforms are over and the country is now ready to “reap the benefits” of trade and investment.
By passing Bill No. 7 (the 2025 Amendments), the Government has increased the number of seats in the National Assembly. Strategically, they are focusing on the 40 reserved seats for women, youth, and persons with disabilities. The UPND is aggressively recruiting within these groups to ensure they capture this new “inclusion” vote.
The UPND is working to highlight the internal contradictions between the “Socialist” Fred M’membe and the “Pro-Capital” Brian Mundubile. By framing them as an “unholy alliance,” the Government hopes to convince centrist voters that a coalition victory would lead to political chaos.
“CDF deliverables”: The President has assured that the 2026 elections will be peaceful and transparent, citing recent by-election victories (such as the Kasama Mayoral race in late January 2026) as proof that the people still trust the UPND’s decentralised development model.
Progress of the opposition “Grand Coalition”
The Opposition is in a race against time. Following Brian Mundubile’s election as the Tonse candidate on January 28, 2026, the pressure for a single ticket has reached a fever pitch. Meanwhile, talks are a must. Instead of one single party, they may run as separate presidential candidates but agree not to compete against each other in parliamentary constituencies to avoid splitting the anti-UPND vote. There is, therefore, growing agreement that Mundubile will lead the campaign in the North and East, while M’membe will lead in the Copperbelt and Lusaka. The main barrier remains the Socialist Party’s fear that the Tonse Alliance (driven by former PF members) will return to the “old ways” of debt and corruption once in power.
My final consideration
For you as a citizen, the coming months will be a “war of narratives.” The Government will show you new schools and stable exchange rates, while the opposition will show you high market prices and “neoliberal” austerity. The side that successfully convinces the undecided 5% of the population will likely take the State House in August.
Stay sober and vigilant!
