Unity + Positive Agenda + Strategic Campaign = Majority Vote. Time is critical!
By Jack Kampole
The political stage appears ready for a defining confrontation. After rising to power in 2021 on a wave of widespread optimism, the ruling United Party for National Development (UPND) again faces the electorate amid a complex backdrop of unfulfilled promises and economic difficulties. Yet, despite visible public discontent over the high cost of living and many other burdens, the path to unseating an incumbent remains steep. The greatest obstacle to change is not the strength of the ruling party alone, but the profound and persistent weaknesses within the opposition camp itself.
For months, the chorus for a united opposition front has grown louder from commentators, civil society, and a frustrated citizenry. However, the reality on the ground is one of fragmentation, hesitation, and recycled strategies. The weaknesses are glaring.
First, personality-driven politics continue to be a liability. The opposition is made up of a variety of leaders, each with their own party vehicle, goals, and personal grievances. Talks of a grand coalition are frequently undermined by the politics of ego and the “who will be president?” question. The anti-incumbent vote is diluted by this fragmentation, a gift the UPND is eager to accept.
The second issue is the dilemma of an alternative vision. The primary focus of opposition discourse has been to criticize President Hichilema’s administration, an essential but insufficient strategy. To persuade a nation to change course, they must present a coherent, credible, and costed plan for the future. Voters need to know what they are voting for, not just what they are voting against.
Third, the main opposition parties are beset by organizational deterioration and resource inequality. Important opposition forces are weaker, internally divided, and lacking the resources to launch a truly national campaign as the UPND unifies its national apparatus. Their power is often restricted to well-established strongholds, which immediately leads to the loss of large areas of the country.
Finally, the shadow of previous treachery looms large. The last unsuccessful Pacts and other coalitions have sown deep-rooted mistrust. Sincere coalition building is challenging because of this historical baggage, causing parties to spend more time observing one another than plotting against the shared opponent.
Although challenging, the formula is obvious: success depends on opposition unity. Stressing this will encourage leaders to take coordinated action by fostering a sense of shared accountability and purpose.
The formula, while difficult, is clear: opposition unity is essential for success. Emphasizing this will foster a sense of shared purpose and collective responsibility among leaders, motivating coordinated action.
To build credibility and trust, the opposition must present a unified front and, most importantly, choose a single presidential candidate in an honest, defined process.
A Manifesto of Hope, Not Just Criticism. The coalition must come up with a “National Rescue Plan”, a detailed, costed policy platform addressing jobs, agriculture, social services, and governance. It must offer real hope while directly addressing the everyday hardships of ordinary people living in villages and compounds.
This united front should leverage the strengths of its components. Let the leaders campaign where they are strongest, combining historical strongholds with new inroads. The campaign must be data-driven, targeting marginal constituencies with localized messages, powered by a massive voter mobilization and protection effort.
Another best option is to build a broader movement, such as formal alliances with churches, civil society, youth groups, and respected non-partisan figures, who can transform the coalition from a mere political merger into a broader national movement for change, lending it greater moral authority and reach.
The coming months will reveal whether opposition leaders can rise above personal ambition for the national interest. The 2021 election proved that Zambians are willing to change leadership when presented with a credible alternative. That alternative is clearly needed now, but the supply is still divided.
The decision is clear: come together and provide a compelling vision, or split apart and give in. The opposition has the upper hand. History awaits their choice as the country looks on.
The Bottom Line is that incumbency is powerful but not invincible. A united, strategic, and positive opposition can make this a competitive race. Without it, the outcome seems a foregone conclusion.
Reiterate that the opposition’s success depends on presenting a credible, united front with a single candidate, which should be the primary focus of strategic engagement.
The “Ideal” Opposition Candidate for a 2024 Landslide Victory in Zambia
Moving away from the critique to the blueprint, the leading opposition candidate should be crafted and positioned to achieve a landslide victory in this year’s elections.
In addition to winning, a landslide victory would decisively dismantle the UPND’s 2021 coalition and reclaim large portions of the nation for the opposition. The presidential candidate must be more than just a consensus nominee. They have to be a strategic idea, a living symbol of Zambia’s future, designed to heal past divisions and ignite new hope.
The Profile
A Unifier-in-Chief is required of the candidate. Someone who neutralizes the poisonous legacy of political tribalism and personal grudges rather than igniting them. One who cannot be viewed as a vehicle for a particular region or the old guard of a past ruling party, but rather as a bridge rather than a barricade. Their identity and campaign narrative must actively transcend the “North-West” versus “East” or “PF vs UPND vs Others” divisions. They must be a national figure, or a figure made national by the coalition’s explicit design.
To say the least, voters are tired of recycled faces with heavy baggage. The ideal candidate must have a track record of principle, someone who has stood for good governance, not just partisan gain. A “political outsider” (even if they have experience) is a potent asset against an incumbent blamed for broken promises. Consider a reputable technocrat, a prominent national business figure, or a civil society icon that the alliance should adopt.
One with the Humility to serve in a season of economic pain. The candidate, therefore, must project servant leadership, not entitlement. They must frame their ambition as a duty to rescue the nation, not a personal conquest. Their public demeanor and messaging must strike a perfect, powerful chord.
The candidate must listen to voters’ hardships in markets, farms, and compounds, making them feel heard and validated, while presenting clear, practical plans to address their needs.
Their language must be relentlessly focused on such issues as jobs, mealie-meal costs, fertilizer access, and fuel prices. They must speak in tangible specifics, not abstract political slogans. Every speech should answer the voter’s silent question: “How will this make my life better after elections?”
The other critical aspect is the Presidential Stature, Not Partisan Brawler. The ideal candidate must avoid looking bitter or engaging in petty, personal attacks on President Hichilema. Instead, they should hold the office and the record accountable. The critique should be: “The government has failed on these metrics. Here is what my administration will do differently.” This elevates them to a presidential alternative.
The Place of Strategy
A landslide requires a coalition victory, not a one-person show. The coalition’s other key leaders must physically and symbolically surround the candidate at every significant event. They must say, “I am not the messiah; I am the captain of the best team Zambia can assemble.” This reassures supporters of all coalition parties that their interests are included and neutralizes accusations of a one-party takeover.
They must be a generous, trust-building team. They must actively campaign for the coalition’s parliamentary candidates nationwide, especially in areas outside their own ethnic or political base. This demonstrates commitment to a complete takeover of government and builds coattails for a parliamentary landslide.
Be able to leverage a Powerful Contrast by embodying the antithesis of current voter grievances. If the UPND is seen as aloof and technocratic, the candidate must be warm and relatable. If the UPND is seen as having neglected its promises, the candidate must be brutally specific and accountable in their own pledges.
The Winning Formula in a Nutshell
The landslide-winning candidate is a Credible Unifier, an Empathetic Economist, and a Coalition Captain.
This candidate must look like the calm, competent CEO Zambia needs to fix a broken economy, not a fiery revolutionary. They pose as the humble listener in a crowded market and the confident leader on a national stage, surrounded by a team that represents Zambia’s diversity.
Final Warning
The candidate cannot and must not be imposed by backroom deals. The selection process itself must be transparent and credible, serving as the coalition’s first demonstration of a new, ethical politics. If the candidate emerges smelling of old, selfish politics, the landslide dream dies before the campaign even begins. The person and the process must be a breath of fresh air.
