The Heart of the Matter, by Lanky Observer.
A New World Order
On September 11, 2001, the world was gripped by the news of an attack on the World Trade Centre, Manhattan, New York. Two commercial planes hijacked by what would be claimed to have been Al-Qaeda operatives, flew right into the twin towers, taking hundreds of lives working there at the time, as well as passengers on board. It was the shaking of a global hegemon to international ripple effect.
The attacks gave rise to renewed discussion around America’s place in the global geopolitical order and her relationship with the rest of the world. Over several centuries, the USA’s financial and military preeminence stood unchallenged and undisputed. She dictated global trade, forged powerful alliances, exercised gargantuan military might, and shaped political discourse.
24 years to those fateful attacks, the world looks a lot different.
From out in the horizon came China, briskly cementing a meteoric economic rise, finally mounting a formidable challenge to that stranglehold. Over a 30-year period, the Oriental civilization went from agrarian society to industrial giant, disrupting global commerce and redefining the geopolitical order. Enter BRICS.
Brazil, Russia, India and China, the countries from which the acronym emerges, united to promote emerging economies’ cooperation with a strong focus on Global South trade and development, fostering greater geopolitical integration among member states to enhance investment and financial stability, and reduce dependence on the U.S dollar in trade and finance. Simply, BRICS represents a shift in global power dynamics, with emerging economies playing an increasingly prominent role.
Last year, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates joined the community. Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Kazhakstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Malaysia, Thailand, Uganda and Uzbekistan also identify as its official ‘partner’ countries. BRICS now accounts for 35% of global GDP, expected to cross 40% over the next decade. The economic bloc is also building institutions with important implications for international finance, supply chains, technological research, and energy trade. Out in Europe, the EU continues to present similar opportunities for its member states, albeit with diminishing global prominence.
So what does all of this portend for the world?
This shift from a uni-polar to multi-polar world order will undoubtedly see an even bigger challenge to the United States’ economic and political influence. It will give a greater voice to the Global South in global affairs, challenging the domination of existing financial institutions and redefining markets. Intra-bloc trade and investment inflows have seen a rapid growth since BRICS’ formation two decades ago. At last year’s BRICS summit, the idea of a Grain Exchange was mooted as a response to Western dominated food markets. Essentially, an intra-bloc grain exchange is meant to build greater food security, realize more stable prices, and mitigate exposure to the notoriously fair weather whims of the US and EU.
With the recent disintegration of the Africa Growth Opportunity Act (AGOA), the importance of initiatives like this becomes even more evident. Skeptics who have questioned BRICS’ relevance might now appreciate the importance of self-reliant initiatives away from a declining order. The world is changing in many significant ways, the West no longer holding a monopoly on trade or influence. This calls for a diversification of risk and revenue opportunity, continual reinvention to retain global relevance, forging strategic partnerships based on mutual benefit and not just political leverage, and integration of markets for synergies in commerce.
A multi-polar world system would be nothing particularly new, however. It fore-ran the first World war, when Europe had several power centers jostling for dominance and access to resources. The lessons to be drawn from that period in human history will bear lots of relevance to the present dynamic; multi-polar Europe was a hotbed of secret alliances, emerging, disintegrating and re-emerging partnerships. Ultimately, those fragmented under the burden of disparate geopolitical motivations. As anyone would estimate, forging any such lasting communities entails more than goodwill — commonality of purpose and aims is crucial, as is an appreciation of the sometimes competing economic needs of member states. For example, those for whom AGOA would have served a singular trade opportunity are now left scrambling for markets. A foresighted partnership would recognize the would-be ramifications of any such eventuality on its members, informing its policy action.
In the event of a global trade war, as increasingly appears possible now, emerging economies are exposed to heightened vulnerability in a higher cost of business, trade disruptions as players reorient their exports away from impacted markets, supply chain upheavals, diminished trade volumes, and broader diplomatic and political discord from escalated tensions.
Washington’s often frosty relationship with Beijing looks set for some more melodrama with the Trump administration’s announcement of increased trade tariffs, not just with China, but a host of other nations across the globe. When DC sneezes, Kinshasa catches a cold over here. One of many questions to be asked around this is where this ultimately leaves international affairs going into what promises to be a particularly defining time for the global order.
We understand what China can offer and do and could reasonably predict how she will respond. What we haven’t nearly discussed as much is how the Global South positions itself to ride the oncoming wave out, recognizing the interlink between nation’s fortunes and multifaceted outcomes. Lessons drawn from historical trade wars should be highly instructive in this regard. Nations rise and fall, sometimes rising again. The constant in all of that is change, however. Those who read and understand history learn its hard-won and enduring lessons. They read the times and organize themselves to respond to their evolution, positioning themselves to thrive and not get left behind.
As the global superpowers flex their proverbial muscles in geopolitical showdowns, effects reverberating across continent and billions of people, upending political, economic and social systems alike, how are we positioning ourselves to navigate the fluxes of this evolving new world order?
*The author is a private citizen with a fondness for the abstract. Email comments, questions and counter-arguments to: observerlanky@gmail.com
