Act now, not after the drought
ZAMBIA has been given something invaluable ahead of the 2026/2027 rainy season, a warning.
The latest seasonal rainfall outlook is not merely another technical document produced by climate experts for Government shelves. It is an early warning of what could become a serious threat to food security, water availability, electricity generation and livelihoods, especially in the southern half of the country.
The warning from Secretary to the Cabinet Patrick Kangwa must be taken seriously. More importantly, it must be translated into action.
Zambia knows all too well what a prolonged dry spell can do. The 2023/2024 drought left a painful lesson, with crops failing, water reservoirs declining, livestock dying and millions of people requiring emergency assistance and a crippling electricity deficit. Nearly one million hectares of the 2.27 million hectares of maize planted were lost, while more than 5.8 million people needed relief.
That experience should make complacency impossible.
The latest forecast suggests that southern Zambia could again face below-normal rainfall, delayed onset of rains and an earlier end to the season. Temperatures are also expected to be higher than normal in much of Southern and Western provinces.
This is worrying because the country is still dealing with food insecurity. About 1.2 million people could face severe food shortages between October 2026 and March 2027. Zambia has made considerable progress in reducing humanitarian needs since the last major drought, and that progress must not be squandered through failure to prepare.
The most important message from this forecast is not that drought is inevitable. It is that Zambia has time to reduce its impact.
Government must use that time wisely.
The directive to permanent secretaries, provincial administrations and local authorities to activate contingency plans should not remain an administrative instruction. There must be clear timelines, responsibilities and measurable interventions. Authorities in the most vulnerable districts should know precisely what they are expected to do before the rains arrive, and they must be held accountable for implementation.
Farmers must also receive timely and practical information. Advising farmers to plant according to scientific forecasts instead of the calendar is important, but such advice must reach them in a form they can understand and act upon. Agricultural extension officers must be adequately supported to reach communities, while drought-tolerant and early-maturing seed must be available when farmers need it.
At the same time, Zambia must prepare for the possibility that the effects of a poor rainy season will extend beyond agriculture.
Reduced inflows into the Zambezi could affect dam levels and electricity generation. Given Zambia’s recent experience with power shortages, this is an area that cannot be treated as an afterthought. Energy and water utilities must monitor levels closely, plan for different scenarios and communicate honestly with the public about the risks.
The health sector and disaster management authorities must likewise prepare for heat stress, water shortages, disease outbreaks and flooding in areas expected to receive heavier rainfall.
There is also an important lesson in the geographical differences contained in the forecast. Zambia cannot afford a one-size-fits-all response. While the south prepares for dryness, communities in the north must guard against excessive rainfall, flooding, waterlogging and soil nutrient loss.
Climate information is valuable only when it informs decisions.
The Government has a responsibility to ensure that the forecast reaches farmers, local authorities, planners and communities. But citizens also have a responsibility to heed credible scientific advice.
This is precisely why the warning must not become yesterday’s news.
Zambia has been given an opportunity to prepare before the crisis arrives. We must not wait for empty dams, failed crops, dying livestock, load shedding and hungry families before acting.
The country should learn from 2023/2024 and do better this time.
The forecast has been delivered. Now the real test begins, which entails turning knowledge into preparedness.
Zambia must act now and not when the drought has already arrived.
