BRACE FOR DROUGHT
… Kangwa warns of hotter, drier 2026/27 season as southern Zambia faces delayed, below-normal rains
By Ludia Ngwadzai
SECRETARY to the Cabinet Patrick Kangwa has warned Zambians to brace for a drier and hotter 2026/2027 rainy season, with the southern half of the country facing the greatest risk of below-normal rainfall and delayed rains.
Kangwa said the country must act on the latest climate forecasts now instead of waiting for disaster to strike.
He said the forecast, based on findings of the 33rd Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-33), points to a challenging season ahead for much of Southern Africa, including Zambia.
“The message is clear and united: much of Southern Africa, Zambia included Zambia, should expect a drier and hotter season than usual, and we must begin preparing now,” he said.
Kangwa was speaking in Lusaka yesterday during the official launch of the 2026/2027 National Seasonal Rainfall Forecast Outlook.
The outlook was developed from regional climate assessments conducted during SARCOF-33, which brought together climate experts in Swakopmund, Namibia, from August 25 to 28, 2026.
Kangwa said the main driver of the expected weather conditions was El Niño, which is associated with drier conditions in the region.
He said forecasters and the World Meteorological Organisation had put the probability of El Niño developing at more than 90 percent, with the phenomenon potentially strengthening into what scientists call a “Super El Niño” and lasting through to March 2027.
Kangwa said Zambia had experienced the devastating consequences of El Niño-induced dry spells during the 2023/2024 farming season when crops failed, water reservoirs were depleted and livestock died.
“The Government was forced to provide emergency relief to over 5.8 million people, and nearly one million of the 2.27 million hectares of maize planted were lost,” he said.
Kangwa said the experience should serve as a warning for the country to strengthen preparedness rather than wait for another crisis.
According to the outlook, rainfall patterns will vary considerably across the country, with Zambia divided into three broad climatic belts.
The northern belt covering Northern, Luapula and Muchinga provinces, the northern parts of North-Western Province and several districts including Chienge, Nsama, Mpulungu, Mbala, Senga Hill, Nakonde, Kawambwa, Kasama, Chinsali and Isoka, is expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall.
Kangwa said the heaviest rains in these areas were expected between October and February, with rainfall potentially continuing into April.
The central transition zone covering Copperbelt, Central and Eastern provinces as well as southern parts of North-Western Province is expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall at the beginning of the season from October to January before becoming progressively drier from around December.
But the southern belt has emerged as the area of greatest concern.
The belt covers Southern, Lusaka and Western Provinces as well as southern parts of Central and Eastern provinces, including Livingstone, Zimba, Kazungula, Sinazongwe, Gwembe, Kalomo, Choma, Monze, Mazabuka and Chirundu.
Kangwa said the region could experience below-normal rainfall, with rains expected to start late, between late November and December.
“The rains will also end earlier in the south, around March, while continuing into April in the far north,” he said.
Kangwa said temperatures were expected to be warmer than usual across much of Southern and Western Zambia, increasing heat stress and causing soils and water sources to dry up more quickly.
The warning comes at a time when food security remains a major concern, with the latest Zambia Vulnerability Assessment indicating that about 1.2 million people, representing roughly seven percent of the analysed population in 93 assessed districts, could face severe food shortages between October 2026 and March 2027.
Kangwa said the country could not afford to lose the gains made in reducing the number of people requiring humanitarian assistance.
He said the number of people needing emergency food assistance had fallen by 79.3 percent over the past two growing seasons compared with the 2023/2024 drought period.
“This outlook, therefore, is not just a set of weather figures. It is an early warning that allows us to act in time and protect the progress our nation has made,” Kangwa said.
He directed permanent secretaries and provincial administration heads to immediately activate their contingency plans and ensure that preparedness measures were tailored to the risks facing different parts of the country.
Kangwa said farmers in the drier southern and central regions should consider early-maturing and drought-tolerant crops and wait for confirmation from the Zambia Meteorological Department on the onset of rains before planting.
He said farmers in the wetter north should instead guard against waterlogging and the washing away of soil nutrients.
Kangwa warned that reduced water inflows into parts of the Zambezi could affect dam levels and power generation.
He directed energy and water utilities to closely monitor the situation, conserve water and manage power generation carefully in order to minimise the risk of severe load shedding.
The health sector and disaster management authorities have also been directed to prepare for multiple risks, including heat and water shortages in the south and disease outbreaks and flooding in the north.
Kangwa said government and its partners had already developed an El Niño preparedness plan ahead of the rainy season.
He cited the Strengthening Climate Resilience of Agricultural Livelihoods in Agro-Ecological Regions I and II (SCRALA) project, which is funded by the Green Climate Fund and implemented by the Ministry of Agriculture in partnership with UNDP, FAO and WFP.
Kangwa urged farmers across the country to work closely with agricultural extension officers and follow advisories from the Zambia Meteorological Department.
“This seasonal outlook is, above all, for you. I, therefore, urge every farmer, large and small, to work hand in hand with our agricultural extension officers, to heed the advisories of the Zambia Meteorological Department at every stage of the season, and to plant by the science and not by the calendar alone,” he said.
Kangwa directed ministries, provincial administrations and local authorities to ensure the forecast reaches planners, extension officers and decision-makers at all levels.
“Let us heed these warnings early, turn this information into action, and build a climate-resilient Zambia together,” Kangwa said.
