Where the election could be won and lost for Mundubile
By Christopher Mapani
IN THIS article, I examine the strengths and vulnerabilities of the Mundibile-Makebi ticket.
Hakainde is now a known quantity: No more promises please!
Unlike 2021 when Zambians voted based on what they thought and believed of him, President Hakainde Hichilema now has a record. No matter what he says, therefore, Zambians first want him to show them what he has done – ‘sonta apo wabomba’. And like the gentleman in the Fifa World Cup advert would say: no more promises please!
Evidently, Hakainde is not the democrat, reformer, statesman or leader most of us perceived him to be. He has proved to be more of a manager who maintains the status quo than a leader who changes things. In fact, that a political party Zambians overwhelmingly rejected just five years ago can have such appeal is an indictment on his leadership.
Leaders get worse the longer they stay in power. We cannot therefore expect better from the Hichilema presidency.
With so many broken promises and U-turns, his word no longer means much. In particular, U-turns on repealing cyber laws, the Bill 7 saga, dictatorship and mistreatment of the opposition, could prove costly. Zambians hate injustice. Neither do they like insulting their intelligence. They can see through when their leaders say one thing and do the opposite.
The urban vote, especially, is ready for the picking. But voters won’t just fall onto opposition laps like manna from heaven. They have to be persuaded, given a reason to vote for you. This could be done by turning the election into a referendum on Hakainde’s rule – showing how he has failed to deliver on the change Zambians voted for.
Further, Hakainde has lost the strategic advantage of invincibility; he is now seen as beatable. A vote for the opposition is therefore no longer seen as a waste. If anything, he is not the ‘great political strategist’, at least to the stature of Michael Sata. If he were, he would probably have succeeded President Sata in 2015 when the Patriotic Front (PF) was divided and at its weakest. As for 2021, Zambians were tired of PF and Hakainde happened to be in the right place at the right time. We forget that he lost several elections before becoming president.
But make no mistake, he learned valuable lessons from these losses. He is also resilient and has incumbency on his side. You can only therefore underrate him to your own detriment. The opposition can nonetheless draw inspiration from their recent victory in Chawama, our neighbors in Malawi and even the Lungu family’s success regarding late President Lungu’s burial.
PF baggage and failure to rebrand
Brian Mundubile may not officially be contesting on the Patriotic Front (PF) ticket but everyone know he is the PF candidate. Mundubile himself has said he wants to govern like President Lungu. How then does he overcome the PF baggage compounded by the failure to rebrand? The question for the voter, therefore, is what the Mundubile presidency means – whether a continuation of the Lungu presidency or perhaps ‘continuity with change’?
To win, Mundubile has to peel off the 2.8 million that voted for Hakainde. The challenge then is how to position himself relative to President Lungu. How does he distance himself from President Lungu without losing his support base?
But whereas Mundubile was part of PF and therefore bears some responsibility for its failures, he wasn’t the president. He did not even hold a Cabinet portfolio. Perhaps then he should be judged on his record as member of Parliament or Leader of Opposition.
While acknowledging President Lungu’s accomplishments, Mundubile should remain his own man. Saying he wants to rule like Lungu is therefore ill advised. So is telling President Hichilema that he shouldn’t fear leaving office, that he will be protected, or talk of releasing those convicted of corruption. It is not the president’s job to decide who should be prosecuted; it smacks of the disregard for the rule of law that characterized the Lungu era. Admittedly, there may be cases of political persecution but these should be handled on case-by-case basis.
Further, unrealistic promises like providing free books and uniforms, on top of free education, merely attract ridicule. Besides, not only are Zambians now more enlightened, it becomes difficult to capitalise of Hakainde’s failed promises.
A ticket of exclusively male from the ‘North-Eastern Region’
In its report of 31 January 2019, The Commission of Inquiry into Voting Patterns and Electoral Violence noted tribal inclination as one of the factors influencing voter choice – that is, supporting parties led by individuals from one’s tribe or region. Gender diversity is equally important in Zambian elections. The Mundubile – Makebi ticket therefore faces the challenge of being exclusively male from one region – the ‘North-Eastern region’.
The commission further found growing concerns among those from the Southern-Western half of the country that the national ‘cake’, in terms of resources, development and appointments to ministerial and senior government positions, favored individuals from the Northern-Eastern region and that those from the Southern-Western region felt neglected by successive governments. How then do Mundubile and Makebi assure those from the Southern-Western region against fears of retribution and marginalisation?
Confusion between parliamentary candidates and failure to field candidates in some areas
The Mundubile – Makebi ticket is an amalgamation of two parties with each fielding parliamentary candidates. Thus, the parties are collaborating at presidential level but competing at lower levels. Unless well handled, this competition could undermine the presidential vote. It may also advantage ruling UPND parliamentary candidates who were able to fend off competition from popular independent candidates from the party.
Regrettably also, both Mundubile and Makebi could not field candidates in some constituencies. How then do they protect the vote in such places? To compound matters, ruling party candidates in some of these constituencies are unopposed. As such, there may be no other parties protecting the vote in such places. Equally regrettable, western countries don’t seem interested or concerned about irregularities in this campaign while respected figures like former head of Christian Churches Monitoring Group (CCMG) Fr Emmanuel Chikoya, may no longer be involved in the electoral process. The opposition would therefore do well to priorities and deploy agents to these constituencies and ruling party strongholds, generally.
Failure to adequately prepare for the election
Given the unending drama in the PF the last five years, the opposition was naturally preoccupied with how to participate in the election. Consequently, they could not attend to key pre-campaign matters such as mobilizing campaign funds and promotional material, verification or audit of the voters register and creating structures. It is equally doubtful that they properly vetted their candidates to come up with the most suitable.
Mundubile appears to be a people person and has already saved Zambian democracy
Mundubile may not be the most polished or have the best ideas but has one advantage – the personality of a humble leader capable of bringing people together. Like Michael Sata, he comes across as a relatable leader.
Further, Mundubile has already scored big – he has saved our democracy. Without him, President Hichilema would be virtually unopposed. This alone should endear him to Zambian voters.
